Un airbag pour rendre les obligations suisses attractives

Le premier semestre 2022 nous a enseigné que même les obligations sans risque libellées en franc suisse peuvent subir des pertes importantes. Après plusieurs années de forte hausse, les obligations suisse sont enregistré une performance tout aussi décevante que celle des actions suisses.¹

En général, les obligations sans risque ont un effet stabilisateur quand les marchés baissent, mais la situation inverse s’est produite. Dans notre dernier article, nous passons en revue les facteurs qui influent sur le niveau des pertes des obligations sans risque dans différents scénarios d’évolution des taux d’intérêt.

• Le risque de perte des obligations sans risque dépend de la durée et de l’ampleur de la hausse des taux d’intérêt estimée, ainsi que du niveau des taux, notamment pour les horizons de placement plus longs. Ce niveau de départ peut faire office d’airbag et atténuer les pertes.
• Autrement dit, plus le risque de variation des taux d’intérêt est important, plus la charge sur l’airbag disponible sera lourde. La durée de l’horizon de placement est toutefois encore plus déterminante pour la rentabilité attendue.
• Un horizon de placement un peu plus long, un risque sur taux d’intérêt faible et un risque de crédit supplémentaire peuvent permettre d’améliorer considérablement les perspectives de rendement des obligations en franc suisse sur les cinq prochaines années.

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Sources

[1] La performance passée n’offre aucune garantie quant aux résultats futurs.

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