Ein besserer „Airbag“ lässt CHF-Anleihen attraktiv erscheinen

Wie das 1. Halbjahr 2022 offenbarte, sind auch sichere CHF-Anleihen nicht vor schmerzhaften Verlusten gefeit. So entwickelte sich etwa ein Portfolio mit sicheren Schweizer Anleihen – nach vielen Jahren hervorragender Performance – ähnlich negativ wie Schweizer Aktien.¹

Von sicheren Anleihen erwartet man normalerweise Stabilität, wenn die Aktienmärkte fallen. Stattdessen ist das genaue Gegenteil eingetreten. In unserer jüngsten Publikation untersuchen wir die Aspekte, die bestimmen, wie hoch die Verluste bei risikolosen Anleihen in verschiedenen Zinsszenarien ausfallen.

• Das Verlustpotenzial von risikolosen Anleihen hängt von der Laufzeit und der Höhe des angenommenen Zinsanstiegs sowie auch entscheidend vom vorliegenden Zinsniveau ab, insbesondere bei längeren Anlagezeiträumen. Das anfängliche Zinsniveau wirkt nämlich wie ein Airbag und kann Verluste aus steigenden Zinsen abfedern.
• Um bei dieser Metapher zu bleiben: Je höher das Zinsrisiko, desto grösser die Belastung für den verfügbaren Airbag.  Die erwartete zukünftige Rendite hängt jedoch auch entscheidend von der Länge des Anlagehorizonts ab.
• Ein etwas längerer Anlagehorizont, ein nicht allzu hohes Zinsrisiko und ein zusätzliches Kreditrisiko können bei CHF-Anleihen in den nächsten fünf Jahren für deutlich bessere Renditechancen sorgen.

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