insights.

Strong growth, less pervasive inflation and signs of broader market leadership suggest a more Goldilocks-like backdrop may be emerging.

Is the investment clock broken? We analyse what investors can learn from its shift into reverse since the Hormuz oil shock.

Is central bank behaviour the driving force behind the yen’s recent depreciation? Simply put examines the factors influencing USD/JPY.

Simply put considers higher real yields and the risk of greater uncertainty from changes in the Federal Reserve’s reaction function. 

Markets are looking through geopolitical risk to focus on potentially greater corporate earnings due to AI-driven productivity. 

Higher long-term real yields are often attributed to monetary policy or a higher term premium; We consider the role of the cost of capital. 

Positive and broad-based corporate earnings, AI capex and contained inflation support equity and fixed income markets. 

Oil shocks drive inflation fears, rate expectations and markets – yet the link between oil, inflation and policy tightening is weakening.