investment viewpoints

Turkey needs further tightening of policy and reforms to stabilise

Salman Ahmed, PhD - Chief Investment Strategist

Salman Ahmed, PhD

Chief Investment Strategist

“The results of yesterday’s election were somewhat better than expected for both Erdogan and the AKP/MHP alliance, and indicate the continuation of the current government set-up. Economic policy mismanagement in recent months has been critical in worsening Turkey’s economic situation, in our view. That said, the Erdogan government had started taking the bitter pill of tighter monetary and fiscal policy in the weeks leading into the elections, the full pain of which will be felt in the coming months.

“In the short-term markets may focus on political stability - as a hung result would have meant continued uncertainty – but, in our view, Turkey needs further tightening of monetary policy and fiscal reforms to stabilise both the economic situation and sentiment. With elections out of the way, the hope is that sense will prevail and economic stability will return to the top of the agenda.

“On the basis of underlying fundamental and sustainability metrics we continue to see Turkey as a vulnerable country in the Emerging Markets universe.”

important information.

For professional investor use only.
This document is issued by Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”), and entered on the FCA register with registration number 515393.
Lombard Odier Investment Managers (“LOIM”) is a trade name.
Read more