Fixed income: capturing the comeback

High yields, resurgent carry and supportive pull-to-par dynamics are boosting potential returns across fixed-income markets. In the Q4 issue of Alphorum, we build a constructive case for active, forward-looking investment – with a focus on investment-grade and crossover credit – while taking stock of growth, inflation and energy-price pressures. Key points include:

• Bonds are back in favour. Our lead commentary assesses the opportunities for active investors to exploit the yields and carry on offer while navigating macro risks, while our convictions dashboard reflects our current risk appetite across market sectors
• Following this year’s sell-offs, our systematic research team analyses the prospects of key LOIM strategies – Fallen Angels, TargetNetZero Global Investment Grade, Crossover Credit and Global Fixed Income Opportunities – under four scenarios ranging from a soft landing to stagflation. In all but the harshest environment, the results are encouraging
• Our global government and inflation-linked bond team is proceeding cautiously as macro conditions could foment more volatility. Slowing growth, sticky inflation and rising rates will test companies, but spreads on corporate credit – especially in the investment-grade market – more than compensate for defaults projected in the next 12 months
• As the market focuses on growth, inflation and policy moves, sustainable fixed income continues to make progress. LOIM’s Implied Temperature Rise methodology shows that, since May 2021, US firms account for three-quarters of the increase in issuers worldwide who have set robust emissions-reduction strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement

For more, read the Q4 issue of Alphorum using the download button provided.

FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY
This document is issued by Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”), and entered on the FCA register with registration number 515393.
Lombard Odier Investment Managers (“LOIM”) is a trade name.
This document is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or service. It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful. This material does not contain personalized recommendations or advice and is not intended to substitute any professional advice on investment in financial products. Before entering into any transaction, an investor should consider carefully the suitability of a transaction to his/her particular circumstances and, where necessary, obtain independent professional advice in respect of risks, as well as any legal, regulatory, credit, tax, and accounting consequences. This document is the property of LOIM and is addressed to its recipient exclusively for their personal use. It may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted, modified, or used for any other purpose without the prior written permission of LOIM. This material contains the opinions of LOIM, as at the date of issue.
Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken into, or distributed in the United States of America, any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction, or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For this purpose, the term "United States Person" shall mean any citizen, national or resident of the United States of America, partnership organized or existing in any state, territory or possession of the United States of America, a corporation organized under the laws of the United States or of any state, territory or possession thereof, or any estate or trust that is subject to United States Federal income tax regardless of the source of its income.
Source of the figures: Unless otherwise stated, figures are prepared by LOIM.
Although certain information has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, without independent verification, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or the completeness of all information available from public sources.
Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by LOIM to buy, sell or hold any security. Views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change. They should not be construed as investment advice.
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorised agent of the recipient, without Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited prior consent. In the United Kingdom, this material is a marketing material and has been approved by Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited  which is authorized and regulated by the FCA. ©2022 Lombard Odier IM. All rights reserved.