hedge funds: a change of paradigm

a genuine edge.

Our overall view within alternatives for the 2025 outlook is moderately bullish. 

However, we are surprised at the pricing of markets. In our view, they disregard the potential for a downturn and are virtually priced for perfection at this point. 

The possibility of a tail event – such as a hard landing or geopolitical scenario – is not priced in, and the market also seems to ignore the possibility that we are moving to an environment where fiscal dominance could replace monetary dominance.  Most investors are unprepared for this change of paradigm, which could lead to enhanced volatility and dispersion.
 

multi asset: how higher rates risk could improve diversification

convertible bonds: well-placed for the new Trump era

chase a jackpot?

There are various approaches to achieving performance. To use a gambling analogy: you can bet on a single number in roulette and chase a jackpot, or you can act as the house by managing multiple independent tables with slightly positive odds that compound gains over time. 

Investing reflects similar dynamics: you can take directional and factor exposures, benefiting from favourable market conditions where performance may not reflect skill, or develop a genuine edge through superior information, implementation or execution.

Over the past year, our flagship fund has worked to increase capital efficiency, allocate to more teams with tighter drawdown stops, reduce factor risk, and focus on company-specific ideas while  retaining the overall protection of the fund. This is facilitated by a large degree of complacency in the market, making hedges very cheap to hold. 
 

read also: equities: adapting to market shifts, optimising for net zero 
 

Our advantage comes from structuring trades that accurately express views while minimising unwanted risk, and managing multiple independent positions with slightly positive odds that deliver consistent performance in everchanging market environments. 

As an overall result, our performance will be driven by a multitude of smaller bets, often at the company level. Not only will we avoid taking large factor or macro views, but we will look as much as possible to hedge them out. Importantly, we will aggregate different strategies, operating in different investment universes that also share that conviction. We are convinced that this is the most robust way to build an all-weather, balanced portfolio.
 

author.

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Christophe Khaw
CIO, 1798 Platform

after the bell.

What’s your new year’s investment resolution? 

For 2025, my focus is on building true alpha diversity by cultivating portfolio-manager talent with contrasting investment DNA. The strongest portfolio is not just diversified by asset class or sector – it's powered by managers who see and interpret markets fundamentally differently. Some find opportunity in market dislocations, others in secular trends; some excel in capital structure arbitrage, others in thematic transformation… This cognitive diversity is our real edge.

 

explore more Sharpe thinking.

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