We are expecting a new normal to develop in 2021 as countries begin to emerge from tougher lockdowns. We think the pandemic has highlighted a close link between air pollution and air-borne zoonotic viruses, as well as a link between the spread of viruses and the destruction of natural habitats. In our view, this could lead to a strong shift in focus to bring the broader topic of sustainability back onto corporate and investor agendas.
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Expectations of a less volatile international political landscape, a Democratic US president-elect, and progress on the vaccine front bode well for the 2021 outlook. However, caution remains key as the COVID-19 implications have not yet unfolded in full.
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The shift in the utilities and energy sectors (towards lower-carbon emissions) is likely to accelerate on the back of new regulations and large infrastructure spending. This mega-trend will be accompanied by an acceleration of the digitalisation and automation of large swathes of the economy.
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We believe 2021 will be a delicate year with markets remaining vulnerable to sentiment and rotation. Equity strategies will need to be agile and capable of balancing between short-term bursts of performance in certain traditional sectors and the long-term vision of capturing growth opportunities focused on sustainability.
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Concentration is the worst response to uncertainty, in our view. While performance of sovereign bonds has been very positive in 2020, the protection these assets offer is likely to prove weaker going forward than has been the case in previous market shocks. This means other sources of portfolio protection are required.
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We believe the sustainability theme will continue and even accelerate in 2021, as well as in the years to come, as it appears all economic stakeholders are now starting to embrace sustainability. Importantly, consumers are becoming increasingly conscious of their responsibility and power.
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We expect 2021 to characterise a period where pent-up demand could be truly unleashed. This would end the services-led recession in Asia. Markets are already anticipating this and the current buoyant equity markets and easy debt funding markets should, in turn, spur firms with strong capitalisation to look towards investments once more.
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