investment viewpoints

Fallen angels: stronger supply signals opportunity in high yield

Fallen angels: stronger supply signals opportunity in high yield
Anando Maitra, PhD, CFA - Head of Systematic Research and Portfolio Manager

Anando Maitra, PhD, CFA

Head of Systematic Research and Portfolio Manager
Jamie Salt, CFA - Systematic Fixed Income Analyst and Portfolio Manager

Jamie Salt, CFA

Systematic Fixed Income Analyst and Portfolio Manager

 

Amid the toughest year in decades for fixed-income markets, a forward-looking view is more vital than ever for effective allocation across the asset class. Given the tougher conditions and likely rise in credit-rating downgrades ahead, we forecast a rise in the supply of fallen angels – investment-grade companies that have recently descended to high-yield status. This should lead to relative outperformance by this market segment, offering a prime opportunity to establish or increase exposure, in our view.

 

Need to know

  • Based on our analysis, we expect heightened spreads and tighter financial conditions to presage a rise in credit-rating downgrades and a corresponding increase in the supply of fallen angels
  • On past evidence, positive net supply should lead to a period of structural outperformance for fallen angels over their high-yield peers, and offer greater alpha potential within the asset class
  • Given attractive current valuations and strong achievable yields provided by fallen angels, we view this as the opportune time to establish an exposure in anticipation of increased supply

 

End of limbo for fallen-angel supply?

While the first half of 2022 has seen sell-offs at multi-decade highs in every corner of the fixed-income market, credit ratings have yet to crack. This is thanks to healthy corporate balance sheets following Covid-driven consolidation and prudence. As an indicator, this is somewhat backward looking, and sentiment suggests the market expects an inevitable deterioration in balance sheets in the coming months. Nevertheless, as things stand, a strong buffer exists against earnings headwinds from a credit perspective.

In fact, the recent ratings drift across European and US markets has been negative – i.e., there have been more upgrades than downgrades (see figure 1A). This has also translated to a negative net supply of fallen angels with fallen angels outnumbered by their opposites, the rising stars, as Covid-hit names have recovered following the easing of restrictions in many countries (see figure 1B).

 

FIG 1. Historical bond-rating upgrade/downgrade activity

Alphorum Q3-22-Syst-research-1 bond ratings-01.svg

 

Source: Bloomberg, LOIM calculations. As of May 31, 2022.

 

 

New wave of supply

As mentioned, fundamentals are widely expected to catch up with the deterioration in sentiment seen this year, sooner or later. With limited capital-markets access for companies, their cash buffers will run down as earnings are likely to be simultaneously hit by lower demand. This would ultimately reverse the trend in ratings and see downgrades take prominence. Some simple metrics support this view:

  1. Valuations

Markets are forward-looking discounting machines, with corporate spreads leading ratings action due to the lagging nature of fundamentals. As such, we view the year-to-date widening in credit spreads as a clear sign of impending downward ratings drift.

 

FIG 2. Historical spreads vs six-month ratings drift

Alphorum Q3-22-Syst-research-2 spreads vs ratings-01.svg

 

Source: Bloomberg, LOIM calculations. Spreads as of 27 June 2022; ratings drift as of 31 May  2022.

 

  1. Financial conditions

The transmission of financial conditions into fundamentals, and hence ratings, takes some time. However, the recent tightening in financial conditions has been one of the sharpest on record, and as macroeconomic data show signs of weakening, the impact is now beginning to show on the demand side. Lower demand will also naturally lead to tighter lending standards, squeezed liquidity and a deteriorating ratings outlook.

 

FIG 3. Historical US financial and liquidity conditions vs ratings drift

Alphorum Q3-22-Syst-research-3 liquidity vs ratings-01.svg

 

Source: Bloomberg, LOIM Calculations as of 27 June 2022.

 

With these metrics considered, we can build a simple linear model to estimate ratings drift and the new supply of fallen angels for the coming 12 months. Our model clearly points towards a higher ratings drift, and consequently a sizable net supply of fallen angels (see figure 4).

 

FIG 4. Forecasted ratings drift and fallen angels net supply

Alphorum Q3-22-Syst-research-4 forecast-01.svg

 

Source: Bloomberg, LOIM Calculations as of 27 June 2022.

 

I’m loving fallen angels now

Why does this signify an appealing entry point for fallen angels? Because our research finds that excess returns for fallen angels – and their outperformance over high yield – peak in the period following a pick-up in supply (see figure 5). Consequently, we expect this pick-up in supply to presage a period of fallen angels outperformance over the broader high-yield index.

This period of outperformance can be attributed to the underperformance of bonds at the point of downgrade to fallen angels, as ratings-constrained investors are forced to sell. This phenomenon is evident in both fallen angels and high-yield indices. However, given the much smaller size of the fallen angels index, the weight of new supply has a substantially greater effect. As a result, the positive performance from their recovery has a greater impact on returns. To add a further layer of outperformance, at the same time, the greater breadth of the index offers the potential for heightened alpha as more opportunities arise.

 

FIG 5. Fallen angel supply relative to future performance

Alphorum Q3-22-Syst-research-5 supply-01.svg

 

Source: Bloomberg, LOIM Calculations as of 13 June 2022. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

A high-quality fallen angels index

Given the threat of a recession in the not-so-distant future, investors may be concerned by the heightened credit risk in high yield. However, the current composition of the fallen angels index provides something of a cushion. The index presently has an average rating of BB+/BB, just over one notch below investment grade, which represents the highest credit quality in the 20 years of data available. It is almost two notches higher than the average rating for the high-yield index of BB-/B+, a quality differential which is also the largest observed in the last two decades.

The fallen angels index is therefore well positioned to benefit from an influx of new fallen angels, whilst maintaining a lower beta of current holdings relative to the broader high-yield index. While the higher concentration of the fallen angels index increases idiosyncratic risk, this can be mitigated through active credit research, rather than opting for a passive exposure, to identify fallen angels and not catch falling knives.

 

Fallen, but not from grace

We forecast a rise in downgrades and an increase in the supply of fallen angels, in line with heightened spreads and tighter financial conditions. Our analysis indicates this increase in fallen angel net supply is likely to lead to a period of structural outperformance by these issuers over their high-yield peers, as well as providing greater breadth for alpha potential within the asset class.

In addition, the quality differential between fallen angels and high yield is at a historical high, thereby providing a lower beta to a continued credit downturn. In conjunction with current attractive valuations and achievable yields of more than 6% (on a USD-hedged basis), we view this as an opportune time to tilt credit allocations towards fallen angels.

 

To learn about our Fallen Angels strategy, please click here.

To read the full Q3 issue of Alphorum, please use the download button provided.

Informazioni importanti.

RISERVATO AGLI INVESTITORI PROFESSIONISTI

Il presente documento è stato pubblicato da Lombard Odier Funds (Europe) S.A., una società per azioni di diritto lussemburghese avente sede legale a 291, route d’Arlon, 1150 Lussemburgo, autorizzata e regolamentata dalla CSSF quale Società di gestione ai sensi della direttiva europea 2009/65/CE e successive modifiche e della direttiva europea 2011/61/UE  sui gestori di fondi di investimento alternativi (direttiva AIFM). Scopo della Società di gestione è la creazione, promozione, amministrazione, gestione e il marketing di OICVM lussemburghesi ed esteri, fondi d’investimento alternativi ("AIF") e altri fondi regolamentati, strumenti di investimento collettivo e altri strumenti di investimento, nonché l’offerta di servizi di gestione di portafoglio e consulenza per gli investimenti.
Lombard Odier Investment Managers (“LOIM”) è un marchio commerciale.
Questo documento è fornito esclusivamente a scopo informativo e non costituisce un’offerta o una raccomandazione di acquisto o vendita di titoli o servizi. Il presente documento non è destinato a essere distribuito, pubblicato o utilizzato in qualunque giurisdizione in cui tale distribuzione, pubblicazione o utilizzo fossero illeciti. Il presente documento non contiene raccomandazioni o consigli personalizzati e non intende sostituire un'assistenza professionale in materia di investimenti in prodotti finanziari. Prima di effettuare una transazione qualsiasi, l’investitore dovrebbe valutare attentamente se l’operazione è idonea alla propria situazione personale e, ove necessario, richiedere una consulenza professionale indipendente riguardo ai rischi e a eventuali conseguenze legali, normative, creditizie, fiscali e contabili. Il presente documento è proprietà di LOIM ed è rivolto al destinatario esclusivamente per uso personale. Il presente documento non può essere riprodotto (in tutto o in parte), trasmesso, modificato o utilizzato per altri fini senza la previa autorizzazione scritta di LOIM. Questo documento riporta le opinioni di LOIM alla data di pubblicazione.
Né il presente documento né copie di esso possono essere inviati, portati o distribuiti negli Stati Uniti d’America, nei loro territori e domini o in aree soggette alla loro giurisdizione, oppure a o a favore di US Person. A tale proposito, con l’espressione “US Person” s’intende un soggetto avente cittadinanza, nazionalità o residenza negli Stati Uniti d’America, una società di persone costituita o esistente in uno qualsiasi degli stati, dei territori, o dei domini degli Stati Uniti d’America, o una società di capitali disciplinata dalle leggi degli Stati Uniti o di un qualsiasi loro stato, territorio o dominio, o ogni patrimonio o trust il cui reddito sia soggetto alle imposte federali statunitensi, indipendentemente dal luogo di provenienza.
Fonte dei dati: se non indicato diversamente, i dati sono elaborati da LOIM.
Alcune informazioni sono state ottenute da fonti pubbliche ritenute attendibili, ma in assenza di una verifica indipendente non possiamo garantire la loro correttezza e completezza.
I giudizi e le opinioni qui espresse hanno esclusivamente scopo informativo e non costituiscono una raccomandazione di LOIM a comprare, vendere o conservare un titolo. I giudizi e le opinioni sono validi alla data della presentazione, possono essere soggetti a modifiche e non devono essere intesi come una consulenza di investimento. Non dovrebbero essere intesi come una consulenza di investimento.
Il presente documento non può essere (i) riprodotto, fotocopiato o duplicato, in alcuna forma o maniera, né (ii) distribuito a persone che non siano dipendenti, funzionari, amministratori o agenti autorizzati del destinatario, senza il previo consenso di Lombard Odier Funds (Europe) S.A. ©2022 Lombard Odier IM. Tutti i diritti riservati.