insights.

Will Trump’s trade war spark inflation? We consider 2018’s tariffs to ascertain whether the notion that tariffs equal inflation is correct. 

As investors brace for a potential trade war, we analyse tariff history to assess how the levies – whether reciprocal or unilateral – could impact inflation and growth. 

Amid promising forecasts for growth and market returns, there is still good reason to try to mitigate tail risks in 2025.

What’s next in 2025? Our multi-asset team explores the macro picture, our rules-based allocation approach and why tail risk matters.

US rate cuts have had little effect on rising longer-term rates. Simply put explains why this could weigh on US growth in 2025.

After years of fiscal spending, how will markets react to a global shift towards fiscal consolidation in 2025? 

Fears that inflation is resurfacing have stoked market tremors; yet, this week’s Simply put explains why inflation may actually be heading lower

Simply put assesses the impact of rising government yields and a stronger US dollar on growth, fiscal scenarios and earnings outlooks.